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Top 5 NFL Teams

AFC Top 5

1. New England Patriots

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Indianopolis Colts

4. Tenesee Titans

5. New York Jets

Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh Steelers w/ Dixon, San Diego Chargers

Watch out for: Kansas City Cheifs

NFC Top 5

1. Green Bay Packers

2. New Orleans Saints

3. New York Giants

4. Minnesota Vikings

5. Philadelphia Eagles w/ Vick

Honorable Mention: Atlanta Falcons

Watch Out For: Seattle Seahawks

Biggest Week 1 Stock Movement

First off I would like to say,”Thank you” to Arian Foster and Hakeem Nicks.  Anyone who read my rankings or listened to my rants will return for some more after those two lived up to the hype I put on them preseason.  Here is a quick stock update on a few players.

Major Jump – guys who significantly improve their stock

Arian Foster RB (HOU) – I have preached him as a must pick in every draft preseason.  I pegged Foster as a low first round talent (#8 RB) and everyone thought I was crazy.  I could not have imagined a better week 1.  I may have been happier about Foster’s performance then I was about the G-Men this week, and that is saying a lot.

Hakeem Nicks WR (NYG) – Nicks was ranked as a better WR in my preseason rankings than Steve Smith, and he showed why in week 1.  His hands are not as reliable as Smith, but his talent is far superior.  Even after Hakeem’s drop led to an Eli interception, Manning did not give up on Nicks.  His presence as a great red zone target should lead to a very good season from the second year wideout.

Michael Vick QB (PHI) -It wasn’t even an entire game, but man Vick looked good Sunday.  To me the most impressive thing from Vick was his post-game interview.  He seemed very mature and composed.  I am not saying Vick deserves to be relied on as a QB1, but going into Sunday Mike was unowned in most leagues.  Once waivers clear, he will not be available in any competitive league.

Improvement – players whose stock must move up

Miles Austin WR (DAL) – After some doubted Austin’s ability to repeat his 2009 breakout year, the player who put up 1300 yards in only 12 starts continued to excel.  The O-line looked bad as we expected (nice work Alex Barron), but Austin continued to shine as Romo’s favorite target.  A good WR1.

Eli Manning QB (NYG) – The kid brother looked very good against the Panthers Sunday.  Each of his three interceptions should/could have been completions, so do not worry about that statistic.  The Giants seem to be moving toward a more pass heavy offense under the leadership of Eli and the talent of the WRs.  Solid QB1 moving forward.

Mark Clayton WR (STL) – After being traded to the Rams less than a week before the season started, the former Raven proved to be a valuable asset.  Clayton seemed to be Bradford’s favorite target with 10 receptions for 119 yards.  Clayton should be considered a WR3 with the ability to move to WR2 status if he can solidify his role as the Rams #1 wideout.

Drop-off – Players who see a drop in their stock

Mike Sims-Walker WR (JAX) – MSW was held without a catch in Week 1.  A goose egg never improves a player’s stock, especially when the supposed WR2 Mike Thomas gets six receptions for 89 yards.  Sims-Walker should not be dropped after one awful week (he was covered by The Champ Bailey), but he should be considered a WR4 moving forward.

Steve Smith WR (NYG) –  Smith remains a good possession receiver, and Eli’s safety valve, but no longer deserves fantasy WR2 status with the emergence of Nicks.  A good WR3

Matt Schaub QB (HOU) – With the eruption of Mt. Foster in Houston, the Texan offense may not be as pass happy going forward.  After leading the league in pass attempts in 2009, Schaub went 9 out of 17 on Sunday.  The Texans will not be forced to run in order to keep Peyton Manning off the field every week, but Coach Kubiak insisted that the running game will be a larger role in the offense moving forward.  Schaub will undoubtedly improve on his horrible week 1 performance, but this is not good news for the stock of Matt Schaub.

Jerome Harrison RB (CLE) – After Hardesty went out for the year, Harrison seemed like he may be in line for a workload similar to the end of 2009.  However Harrison only received 9 carries with Peyton Hillis getting an equal share.

Valuing players after Week 1

Fantasy players can be looked at like stocks on Wall Street.  Every player has a value, but no one knows the true value.  It is our job to predict how good these players will do going forward.  We do this by collecting information and data about these players. After Week 1, every player’s stock moves up or down.  This is the best time to take advantage of players who had one bad game.  It is also a good time to unload players who had one great week.  We must take advantage and sell high and buy low.

Let’s say this week Ronnie Brown blows up against Buffalo and puts up 150 Yds/2 TDs.  In the Preseason, Brown was thought of as a valuable player when healthy, but not a top 15 back because of his injury risk.  After going off against a weak Buffalo rush defense, ESPN and other sites decide that Ronnie Brown looked great and move him way up their lists.  All of a sudden Matt Berry raves about Ronnie Brown and places him on the love side in his “Love/Hate” article.  Now everyone thinks Brown is a great running back again and his average ranking has moved from the mid twenties to the top 10.  At that price, Brown is overvalued and should be traded at his inflated price.

In this example we jump to a conclusion too fast on Brown.  In the preseason we all knew Brown could be a great running back when healthy.  We also knew that his injury risk was higher than nearly any other back.  Just because Brown looked fast and healthy, the common fantasy owner thinks that Brown deserves to be bumped into the  top 10 RB.  Due to our short term memory in fantasy football, we forget that we already thought that Brown would do well to start the season but would later get injured.  Before we let the so-called “common fantasy football knowledge” effect our rankings, we must remember Brown’s preseason label of explosive when healthy, but very fragile.   So after his good week 1 we may move Brown up from 25th to 18th on our season long RB rankings, but  the key is to not overate Brown’s value due to one good week.

A player is not necessarily overrated if he has a good week 1.  For example, if Johnny Knox puts up 120 Yds/1 TD against Detroit this week and the common owner bumps his value from 35 to 25, I think that is still a good value to get Knox at.  When figuring out a player’s value we must take Week 1 into effect because it is by far the most important information we have.  However it is not the only info.  Our rankings should always be adjusting to the new information we get, but we should not overemphasize one week of play.

Check back after Sundays games for my list of players who are being over and undervalued.

QB rankings for Week 1

The season is finally here.  Now instead of analyzing yearly value for the draft, we have to start breaking down individual matchups.  There is nothing better than getting out of the gates with a Week 1 W.  So if you have any tough QB decisions for week 1, refer to these rankings.

The Elite

1.  Aaron Rodgers @ Philadelphia – One of the top tier QBs against a young, unproven Eagles defense.  This sounds like a recipe for success, and I am excited to have Rodgers at the helm in one of my two important leagues.  This should be a shootout to open the season at the “The Linc” and Rodgers should be the life of the party.

2. Peyton Manning @ Houston – Another top tier quarterback in a likely shootout.  Manning will be on a mission this year after losing the Superbowl in 2009.  He returns with an arsenal of weapons with Wayne, Garcon, Clark, Collie, A. Gonz, Addai, and D. Brown.  I am intrigued to see how changing the position of the referees could hinder Manning’s hurry-up offense, but they did drop the distance the officials must run from 15 to 12 yards. Manning will continue to be the on-field coach and torch the division rival Texan defense.

3. Drew Brees vs. Minnesota – Is it a coincidence that the top three fantasy QBs are a part of the three highest over/unders in week 1?  The Saints will look to debunk the rumors of a Superbowl hangover against their 2009 Conference Finals opponent.  The Vikings have a staunch defense, their one weakness being the secondary.  They allowed the tenth most passing touchdowns last year, so do not let the Vikings defense deter you.  Not like anyone would be benching Brees, no matter the opponent.  Start with condidence, and enjoy watching your field general at work on opening night.

The Upper Class

4. Tom Brady @ Cincinnati – I think Brady will have a great season this year.  Tom has a questionable defense and a bit of a chip on his shoulder after being written off due to the last two seasons.  That said he starts his season with a tough matchup against the Bengals defense.  Jonathon Joseph and Leon Hall make up the most underrated cornerback duo in the league.  The Bengals allowed the sixth least passing yards and the eighth least passing touchdowns in 2009.  Brady should still post decent numbers, but I would expect something along the lines of 275 yds/ 2 TDs.

5. Jay Cutler vs. Detroit – Martz and Co. get a chance at a coming out party at home against Detroit.  This will be a telling sign as to how successful the highly hyped Bears offense will be this year.  The Lions defense (especially their D-line) should be better with the signing of a few free agents, the drafting of Suh, and another year under the tutelage of HC Jim Schwartz.  Even if there is improvement, Detroit was dead last in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed last year.  If Cutler does not put up numbers in week 1, everyone will be stamping this offense with the overrated tag.  My guess is he comes out firing.  300 yds/ 2TDs/1 INT

6. Matt Schaub vs. Indianapolis – Schaub was only marginally successful last year versus the Colts.  He posted good yardage numbers (311, 284), but posted only 3 touchdowns along with five turnovers between the two games.  Since Houston was introduced to the NFL in 2002, they have beaten the Colts only once out of sixteen attempts.  There is a hatred for the Colts in the Texans locker room, and I think the offense will put up good numbers in their season opener, at home, against their arch rival.  Pencil Schaub in for 300 yds/ 2 TDs/ 1 INT.

7. Phillip Rivers @ Kansas City – The Chargers offense has a lot of turnover from last year.  LT Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson are holding out due to contract disputes, and rookie Ryan Mathews has taken over for Tomlinson at running back.  The offense should still be fairly powerful with Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd, Legedu Naanee, and newly acquired Patrick Crayton running routes.  The Chiefs pass defense last year was a little below average (22nd Yds allowed, 20th TDs).  With Eric Berry at safety and Romeo Crennel now at DC, the defense stands to improve.  Arrowhead is notoriously one of the loudest stadiums to play at in the NFL, and opening day should not do anything to contradict the stadium’s image.  Rivers should be a solid quarterback this week, 250 Yds/2 TDs.

The Middle Class

8. Kevin Kolb vs. Green Bay – This should be a high scoring game, and I think Kolb can prove some of his doubters wrong right out of the gate.  We all know Andy Reid is a pass first, pass second kind of guy.  If the Eagles have any chance of winning (the spread is only Eagles +3), then Kolb will have to produce.  He has more variance than someone like Rivers, but his potential for a huge game is there.

9. Tony Romo @ Washington – This matchup is a big question mark.  Can the Cowboys over the hill offensive line protect Romo?  Will the Hayneworth drama effect the performance of the Redskins defense?  These questions don’t allow me to put Romo in the “Upper Class”, making him a below average QB1 start.

10. Carson Palmer @ New England – This will be the first chance to see how Palmer can control Batman and Robin.  The offense has talent and will be up against a young, albeit up and coming, Patriot defense.  Like Cutler, Palmer has a chance to prove that this much talked about offense is for real.

11. Brett Farve @ New Orleans – With Sidney Rice out, can Harvin, Berrian, and Camarillo be enough firepower for Farve?  I think the Vikings turn to Purple Jesus (AP) and the running game.  After missing most of training camp last year, Farve started his season slow passing for 110 yards vs the Browns and 155 yards vs the Lions.  Even with the ESPN hyped opening game, I don’t think Farve will produce fantastic numbers.  The potential is there, but he is definitely not a safe start.

The Lower Class

12. Eli Manning vs Carolina – The first regular season game in the beautiful new stadium.  The chance at a bit of redemption against the team who shut the door on the G-Men in last years horrific close to the season.  A shot to prove to the nation that the Jets may be the most talked about NY team, but not the most talented.  That said, Carolina has one of the better pass defenses in the league (2nd TDs, 4th Yds) and likes to run, run, run on offense.  That does not often equate to a high scoring affair.  A Big Blue win, but only mediocre numbers out of Eli.

13. Matt Ryan @ Pittsburgh – Another potential break out quarterback against a good defense.  The Steelers ranked middle of the pack last year in passing D, but with the return of Polamalu they should vault back into the top ten.  I think the Steelers will also try to slow the game down without Big Ben at quarterback.  Ryan may produce good numbers, but less likely than the men above him.

14. Kyle Orton @ Jacksonville – With Marshall now gone, the question remains who will Orton turn to for the most targets?  Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal stand as the favorites, and this should be a good week for them.  The Jaguars were ranked in the high twenties in passing yards and TDs allowed last year and have not done much to improve.  Orton is a sneaky choice if a manager needed a bye week or injury replacement, but lets hope not as its only week 1.

15. Joe Flacco vs. New York Jets – Flacco has the potential to step into the top tier of QBs this year, but this is not the week.  Even though I think the Jets are slightly over-hyped, it is not because of their defense.  This unit is phenomenal, and can shut down the best.  Revis is just coming back, but make no mistake he will still be good.  Add to the mix the Jets offseason pickups of Kyle Wilson and JT, plus a healthy Kris Jenkins, and losing Calvin Pace is not going to kill the Jets.  Flacco should be benched in week 1 if you own a solid backup QB.

16. Matt Stafford @ Chicago – Another offense with breakout potential.  The Lions acquired Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, and Tony Scheffler in the offseason.  If Stafford can mature quickly he has the ability to put up some good numbers with his supporting cast.  Not to mention the Lion’s weak defense will force the offense to put up numbers in the passing game.  The Bears were middle of the road in passing yards allowed, but near the bottom in passing TDs allowed.  The addition of J Pep should help Chicago’s pass rush, but Stafford should still put up decent numbers.

17. Donovan McNabb vs. Dallas – The first game for an entirely new regime in Washington.  Move over Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell, welcome Mike Shanahan and Donny Mac.  McNabb is not entirely healthy with his ankle, but I would not be surprised if he comes out throwing in an attempt to show the fans he is the new leader.

18.  Derek Anderson @ St. Louis – Starting the season off against the Rams will give Anderson a chance at being successful this year.  Anderson has talented receivers in Fitz, Breaston, and Doucet.  If he can control his accuracy he may be able to put up decent numbers.

19. Matt Cassell vs. San Diego – No one is giving Cassell much credit, but Kansas City has made advancements on offense.  With an in shape Dwayne Bowe, Chambers, McCluster, Charles, and T. Jones the offense has playmakers.  Now that Charlie Weis has come on board, Cassell will be in an offense he studied for several years in New England.  If the O-line can protect him, he may put up decent numbers this year.  San Diego’s defense is overrated, and Cassell has the chance to be serviceable this week.

20. Chad Henne @ Buffalo – Chad Henne liked the offseason addition of Brandon Marshall more than anyone.  For a young quarterback to have a talent like Marshall is very helpful.  Along with Davone Bess and Brian Hartline, Henne has potential.  I think the wildcat becomes even more of a change of pace in Miami this year as Henne takes over.  Buffalo however does have a tough pass defense, ranking second in the league last year.  Second year stud cornerback Jairus Byrd fully practiced Wednesday, and should play on Sunday.  Henne is an average QB2 this week.

Cheers to the first week of the season.  Let the games begin!

NFL Pre-Season Predictions

Here are the predictions for the upcoming NFL season from Mcshaft and Lungz

McShaft, Lungz

AFC East

1. New England (10-6), (11-5)

2. NY Jets – (9-7), (9-7)

3. Miami – (8-8), (8-8)

4. Bills (5- 11) (3-13)

AFC North

1. Baltimore (12-4), (11-5)

2. Cincinnati (10-6), (9-7)

3. Steelers (7-9), (7-9)

4. Cleveland (6-10), (4-12)

AFC South

1. Colts (13-3), (13-3)

2. Tennessee (9-7), (10-6)

3. Houston (8-8), (8-8)

4. Jacksonville (6-10), (6-10)

AFC West

1. San Diego (10-6), (13-3)

2. Oakland (9-7), (7-9)

3. Denver (8-8), (7-9)

4. Kansas City (7-9), (4-12)

NFC EAST

1. Giants (10-6), (8-8)

2.Cowboys (9-7), (11-5)

3. Eagles (8-8), (9-7)

4. Redskins (5-11), (6-10)

NFC North

1. Green Bay (12-4), (12-4)

2. Minnesota (10-6), (9-7)

3. Chicago (7-9), (8-8)

4. Lions (6-10), (6-10)

NFC South

1. New Orleans (10-6), (12-4)

2. Atlanta (8-8), (8-8)

3. Carolina (7-9), (9-7)

4. Tampa Bay (4-12), (3-13)

NFC West

San Francisco (11-5), (10-6)

2. Arizona (8-8), (8-8)

3. St Louis (5-12), (7-9)

4. Seattle (3-13), (3-12)

PLAYOFFS

AFC

McSHAFT

Wild Card

Bye Week: Colts, Ravens

Patriots vs. Bengals: Patriots

Chargers vs. Jets: Jets

Divional

Colts vs. Jets: Colts

Ravens vs. Pats: Ravens

Conference

Colts vs. Ravens: Colts

LUNGZ

Wildcard

Bye: Colts, Chargers

Patriots vs. Jets: Patriots

Ravens vs. Titans: Titans

Divisional

Chargers vs. Patriots: Chargers

Titans vs Colts: Colts

Conference

Colts vs. Chargers: Colts

NFC

McSHAFT

Wild Card

Bye Week: Packers, 49ers

Giants vs Vikings: Giants

Saints vs Cowboys: Cowboys

Divisional

Packers vs Cowboys: Packers

49ers vs Giants: 49ers

Conference

Packers vs 49ers = Packers

LUNGZ

Wild Card

Bye Week: Saints, Packers

49ers vs. Eagles: Eagles

Cowboys vs. Panthers: Panthers

Divisional

Panthers vs. Saints: Saints

Birds vs. Packers = Packers

Conference

Saints vs. Packers = Packers

Super Bowl

McShaft:  Packers vs Colts: Packers

Lungz:  Packers vs Colts: Colts

Detailed Top 25 RB Rankings

These are the running back rankings for a Non-PPR league.  The notations after the description represent the move in a player’s stock in a PPR league.

TIER 1

1. Adrian Peterson – AP has the capability to do something special this year.  With the passing game losing Rice to a hip injury for the first half of the season, there will be a few more rushing attempts in Minnesota.  Another key issue is the departure of Chester Taylor.  From what it looks like, Purple Jesus will now receive third down carries as well.  By having Toby Gerhart and Albert Young only occasionally give Peterson rest, the possibility for greatness is real.  My only question is with this heavy workload, will AP be healthy when we need him the most, the fantasy playoffs.  My guess is that he will be a little banged up by the time the playoffs come and pull a McNabb (choke).  If he stays healthy than we have the chance to see an extraordinary season from AP.

2. Ray Rice – I believe the Ravens offense will be explosive this year and Rice will be the headlining act.  Rice is a tough, quick runnner.  With his short and stocky “bowling ball” build he faces less injury risk.  He is an MJD style running back on a talented offense. He has a great O-line and a good young quarterback who loves Rice as his safety valve.  He is a very consistent pick due to the fact that if the Ravens get down early and must throw, Rice is still an integral part of the offense.  The McGahee factor is an issue, but the fact that there were trade rumors swirling around McGahee represents the Ravens lack of commit to the former Hurricane.  Just throwing this out there, Cam Cameron (Ravens OC) was the offensive coordinator for San Diego during the Ladanian Tomlinson era.  Everyone agrees Rice is an amazingly talented running back, but his one drawback is Mcgahee and even Mclain vulturing touchdowns.  The same was said about Chris Johnson and Lendale White in 2009. (+)

3. Chris Johnson – The stud of last year and the most common number one overall choice.  I am not down on CJ2k, its just that I predict a slight drop in production. I still think he puts up 1700 total yards and 12 TDs.  My biggest pet peeve with other fantasy rankings is their lack of ability to think outside of the box and forget last season’s stats.  CJ was an absolute moster last year, and I believe he will be very good again this year, but you cannot assume a repeat performance.  Of the five rushers to ever rush for 2000 yards, only Barry Sanders gained over 1250 yards rushing the following year.

4. Michael Turner – “The Burner” had his season cut short in 2009 by injury.  People were not raving about him last year, but if you project his 9.5 games played over a full 16 game season, he comes out with 1450 rush yds and 17 TDs.  Not too shabby.  That said, Turner admits to being out of shape last year.  Between improved conditioning and the Falcon’s promise to involve him more in the passing game, Turner has a very high ceiling this year. (-)

TIER 2

5. Frank Gore – When healthy, Gore is an animal.  The 49ers have a chance to be very good this year.  Add in a highly talented lead back and the potential for greatness is there.  However we all know the injury risk that one must take on when drafting Gore.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew – I was low on MJD before the rumors about offseason knee surgery surfaced.  Although Drew is the unquestioned lead back in Jacksonville, his team is subpar.  With an average passing game and offensive line, the original bowling ball should post solid numbers again but lacks the potential to be the #1 fantasy RB.

TIER 3

7. Ryan Grant – I don’t think Grant is the most talented back in the league, but he is a prime example of an opportunity player.  Grant is put in the perfect situation. The lead back for possibly the best passing offense in football.  Grant will rarely ever face eight in the box, and with an improved O-line he can be a borderline RB1.  Green Bay will be in the red zone plenty this year. Even if the offense only rushes the ball occasionally in the red zone, that is still a solid amount of chances for Grant to get in the end zone.

8. Arian Foster – This is probably the highest you will ever see Arian Foster ranked and I cannot figure out why.  With rookie Ben Tate out for the year and Slaton’s fumblitis, Foster will be the lead back.  Last year whoever came in as the starter in Houston did fantastic.  In his two games as the starter in weeks 16 and 17 last year, Foster accumulated 240 yds and three touchdowns.  A young, fresh back who will be receiving the majority of the carries, including the goal line looks, for one of the most powerful offenses in the league sounds like a bargain third round pick to me.

9. Jamaal Charles – Charles is one of the most intriguing backs this year.  He showed at the end of last year that he is one of the most talented RBs in the league.  After his performance to end the season, I do not think there is any way Coach Haley keeps Charles as the #2 RB behind Thomas Jones.  The former Jet will undoubtedly steal some goal-line carries from Charles, but do not worry, a back as talented as Charles will get more than his share of looks at the different end zone art around the league. (+)

10. Ryan Mathews – This is another very interesting scenario.  A rookie running back that may for once be overrated.  Mathews is a tremendous talent, as seen by the Chargers trading up to the 12th pick in order to choose him in the draft this year. It is unsure (before the first game) who will get the goal line carries between FB Mike Tolbert, Mathews, or even Jacob Hester.  Either way, I think Mathews will be in there at times, and on the rest of the field he should see a solid opportunity.  The O – line scares me a little with LT McNiel still in a holdout. Was Tomlinson’s 3.3 YPC due to age or the line? (+)

11. Deangelo Williams – A grossly talented back on a run first team.  Sounds great, but J-Stew has the same description.  Remember in 2008 Deangelo finished the season on a tear amassing 20 total touchdowns on the year. If Stewart gets injured, Deangelo is a  top five back.  Until then, he remains a good RB2.

12. Rashard Mendenhall – With the decision coming out before the first game that Isaac Redman would be receiving goal line carries, Mendys stock drops.  I was not sold on Rashard talentwise, but his opportunity was too much to pass up.  Now that Tomlin reports Rashard is not receiving goal line carries, (which I believe because Redman looked good in the preseason) Mendy can drop from his early second round ADP to a mid third round choice.  Tomlin did note that Mendy would stay on the field for third downs. A good RB2 with some upside.

13. Cedric Benson – Benson was one of the most surprising backs in 2009.  He was not flashy, but he was a true grinder.  The man whose mug shot we all remember from the 2009 offseason put up over twenty five carries in six games last year and over 34 carries three different times!  That kind of wear and tear cannot be sustained for long periods of time in todays NFL.  Benson should put up solid numbers again this year, but I would rather have other running backs at his third round ADP. (-)

14. Stephen Jackson – Stephen Jackson WAS the Rams offense last year.  After drafting Sam Bradford the Rams are aiming to change that, but Jackson is already at the tail end of his prime. He has been the feature back for too many years for my liking.  Over 1500 carries in six years with an additional 280 receptions is too much mileage for a first or second rounder.  With Bradford at quarterback, SJax should continue to face eight defenders in the box the majority of the time.  As much as I like him as a real running back, Jackson probably will not be on any of my fantasy teams this year. (+)

Tier 4

15. Jahvid Best – Best looked like he was playing against a college defense in the preseason the way he made defenders miss.  His combination of speed and agility in incredible.  If he can stay healthy, which is a big if with his style, he has the chance to be phenomenal.  Had he not injured his neck at the end of last year, Best may have went higher than Spiller.  Instead he landed with the up and coming Lions offense.  I think he has the ability to really break out this year.  A decent RB2 with very good upside. (+)

16. Jonathon Stewart – The second part of the Dueling Panthers.  J-Stew showed at the end of last year that he has top tier running back talent.  The Panthers continue to say they will be a run first team.  With the two running backs they have on their roster, why not.  Stewart is a low end RB2 to start the season, but if Deangelo goes down, bump Stewart into Tier 2.  Stewart also seems to be prone to injury.  A bit of a risk, but very high possible reward. (-)

17. Shonne Greene – Rex Ryan’s supposed “bell cow”.   I think Greene should take Thomas Jones’ position, with LT being the Leon Washington prior to the leg injury.  Shonne’s stock is definitely higher in Non PPR leagues, as his reception total should be nothing to brag about.  Still a solid, consistent RB2. (-)

18. Knowshon Moreno – Knowshon begins 2010 with another injury (hamstring).  He should play week one but we are not sure if he will be 100%. Moreno when healthy is a solid RB2.  He has the talent to become a RB1. However the questions remain will he stay healthy and will McDaniels offer him the opportunity.  Considering the coach drafted him 12th overall in 2009 with his first ever draft pick, I think he will.  A bit of a risk, but a fairly solid RB2 with some upside.

19. Pierre Thomas – Pepe Le Pew presents an interesting option at RB.  He is the favored back in one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Last year he could not put up any consistency with Mike Bell and Reggie Bush around.  With Bell now in Philadelphia, Thomas and Bush look to see their roles expanded.  How far is the question.  Thomas will have big games and disappointing ones.  An inconsistent RB2 with upside.

20. Beanie Wells – Another young, talented back.  With Derek Anderson at the helm, the Cardinals offense can go a few different ways.  The first being a chaotic, unorganized offense that tries to force the ball to Larry Fitzgerald.  The second being a ground and pound game that features Wells, with Hightower coming in on third downs.  In this scenario Anderson would only need to occasionally make solid passes which I think is reasonable.  Another possibility is Wells solidifying his pre-draft label of being injury prone.  And the final and most unlikely scenario is Derek Anderson returns to his pro bowl form giving Wells the opportunity to run all over the place.  I would say 1,2, and 3 are realistic.  A low RB2 with some upside.

Tier 5

21. Jerome Harrison – One of my biggest targets this offseason, Montario Hardesty, had his season cut short by an ACL injury.  Harrison will now have less of a threat for the lead back role.  I think James Davis can make a push by the end of the season, but to start the year look for Harrison to see a large amount of carries.  This team has an underrated offensive line.  Harrison makes for a prime example of a player to get on your team only to trade high (after week 5 against Buffalo).  He should be a good RB2 until something changes.  Harrison has the makings of  Cedric Benson in 2009.

22. Matt Forte Forte has the chance to return to fantasy prominence in 2010 after his sophmore slump.  Forte has never been a great between the tackles rusher, but I think he can play the Marshall Faulk role in Martz’s offense (to a lesser degree of course).  Forte has great hands out of the backfield and runs good routes.  Chester Taylor is a bit of an issue, but I believe Forte will still be the majority shareholder of the Bears backfield.  A RB2/flex with upside.

23. Justin Forsett –  Forsett is another back who closed out well last season.  He averaged 5.4 YPC on over 100 carries, and also displayed good hands.  Pete Carroll has named Forsett the starter for now, so we will see where this opportunity takes Forsett.  A risky RB2/good flex with solid upside. (+)

24. Ahmad Bradshaw -As a Giants fan, it pains me to say it but Jacobs will probably never be the same.  He is a huge guy who can beat up defenses, but I think the hits he gives and takes are catching up to him a little.  It is now Bradshaw’s turn.  After still showing great burst with injuries to both feet last year, if he comes back healthy Bradshaw can be a very solid RB2.b

25. Joseph Addai – As much as I dislike his running ability to Donald Brown’s, Addai remains the starter due to his pass protection and familiarity with the offense.  I think there is a decent chance he is unseated as the starter (at the least sees his role diminished) by the seasons end.  However it is currently the start of the season and Addai should be very solid.  Another good draft and trade candidate (around week 5 after he faces Kansas City sounds about right to me).

Honorable Mention

Lesean McCoy – I have the Eagles starting RB lower than most rankings.  There could be a little bias coming in, but I think between Weaver, Mike Bell, and Vick, McCoy will not receive a big share of goal line carries.  This leaves him more in the low end RB2/flex range.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams – They both have good potential with decently high risk of injury.  Brown is a higher risk/reward candidate with Ricky having more stability.

Michael Bush – Once his hand heals, I believe he will overtake McFadden for the starting RB role.

Felix Jones – Great talent, but can he stay on the field.  Also how will that Cowboys O-line shape up?

C.J. Spiller – Another amazing talent.  Will he see enough touches with Fred Jackson healthy to be a RB2?

Donald Brown – Can this be the year he takes over for Addai?  If it is then he is a top 20 back.

Marion Barber – Does he have the burst that Jerry Jones hyped up in the offseason?  If so can he stay healthy?

Fred Jackson – He was a top target of mine before the Bills drafted Spiller.

Reggie Bush – He looked very good in the preseason.  He makes for a good flex in PPR leagues.

Kareem Huggins – Will likely be the starting back in Tampa by seasons end.

Ladanian Tomlinson – Can 21 show some of his legendary quickness?  He looked to be in good shape in the preseason and with that O-line I think Tomlinson has flex possibilities.

Brandon Jacobs – I hope Big Papa returns to glory, but I just don’t see it.

Cadillac Williams – Still currently sitting as the starter in Tampa.

I see the first tier as sure fire RB1s, barring injury.  The second tier should also be solid RB1, but they have a lower ceiling and a higher risk of injury.  The third tier players all have the potential to be RB1, but all of them carry some sort of risk with them, age, injury history, or lack of experience.  The fourth tier consists of young RB who have the potential to really step into the fantasy limelight.  The final tier, the fifth, is full of players with question marks or lacking significant upside.

Hopefully this will help you realize why I have these RBs ranked where they are.  Check out my WR rankings, and continue to check back because more updates will be coming throughout the season on McShaft’s Fantasy Football Insight.

Dirt’s Top 5 Sleeper/Underrated WR

Guest Writer: Dirt

Dirt’s Top 5 Fantasy Sleeper/Underrated Wide Receivers ( Non PPR)

1) Dwayne Bowe: Most of the WR fantasy football headlines lately have gone to the studs of last year (Austin, Marshall, Wayne).  With Dwayne Bowe’s draft stock is not as high as some of those wideouts, he becomes a good value pick. It is easy to look past receivers like Bowe who have spectacular talent and are still relatively unproven. However with the coaching changes that took place in Kansas City and a new high-powered running back tandem of Charles and Jones, Bowe is poised to have a comeback year.
2) Devin Aromashodu: Never heard of him before, you might want to check him out during Chicago’s struggles last year. With Quarterback Jay Cutler, Aromashodu may have been the only constant in that offense down the stretch in the last four games of the year last year. Aromashodu managed 282 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns in those four games. Things to know about Aromashodu are that he definitely is not as fast as Knox and Hester (who the hell is) however he has the strength to create space from the defenders. We all know how fickle of a player Jay Cutler is, but under Mike Martz this offense is destined for a way better fantasy year and it seems as if Cutler found a receiver even he can get along with.
3) Mike Wallace: An absolute must have in your fantasy league for this year. Wallace proved twice last year that he can make the same Super Bowl MVP type catches as Santonio Holmes, and he might even be a little bit quicker than the former Steeler. Yes, Big Ben will not be throwing him the rock until about week 5 however his big play ability makes him a stud sleeper to be taken probably in the 7th or 8th round of your draft. DO NOT be the guy who tries to wait on him and he gets taken if he falls to you in the 7th or 8th you need to pull that trigger.
4) Wes Welker: The white ninja out of Texas Tech has proven that he in fact is not human. He tore his ACL and injured his MCL at the end of the season last year (that’s January). He has come back from what should have been a yearlong recovery in just seven months. If that is not impressive enough, he miraculously seems to have most if not all of his cutting and turning ability back. I probably should have him as the number one sleeper with Brady being in a contract year, however preseason is preseason and whether that leg is going to hold up or not is still yet to be determined. Being as Welker is predominantly used out of the slot, he is in a position that requires a lot of cutting and turning up field coupled with the possibility of incurring some massive hits over the middle.
5) Braylon Edwards: Admittedly Braylon left some of his hands in Cleveland when he left, however he never forgets them in prime time games.  With his competition suspended for the first four weeks of the season (Holmes) and 5 Prime Time games this year he should produce. Edwards and Holmes are both in contract years.  If there was ever a year for this guy to blow up,  this would be the one.  Edwards has a high-powered running back tandem between LT and Big Greene with an even better offensive line look for the screens and play actions to open up big plays for Edwards. The best part this guy could be your # 3 receiver and you should be able to target him around the 8th or 9th round.

Other notables

Eddie Royal- With the departure of Marshall to Miami someone in Denver has to catch the ball. With Josh McDaniels moving Royal back to the slot (where he had his fantastic rookie campaign), he is back on track to have some good numbers. He has not shown much this preseason, but hey neither has the Cowboys star studded offense (0 TD’s in the preseason by the first team offense.)

Jacoby Jones- It was extremely hard not to put this guy on the top 5 list, with a lot of people targeting Andre Johnson in the 1st round of the draft and Houston’s recent struggles in the backfield (with the exception of Foster) someone else is going to have to step up and make some plays. Based on this preseason, Jones has taken Walters spot as the # 2 receiver for Houston and is going to get his fair share of targets.

T.O. – As much as it pains me to watch this character obtain any type of success, it seems as if he is ready to put his last two seasons behind him and take on a secondary receiver roll which will greatly increase his and C.O’s production this year.  With a veteran QB like Palmer, Benson running the ball with a chip on his shoulder, and a big Super Sleeper TE ( Gresham), this offense is ready to make a Super run.

Top 50 WR Rankings Non-PPR

First rankings of the site …

These are the Top 50 Wide Receiver rankings as of 9/1 (with some updates) for a Non-PPR league.

Notations represent the movement in a PPR league

(+)/ (-)  up/down

Tier 1

1. Randy Moss – Every report out of the Pats camp has had Randy in amazing shape.  Being in his contract year, he wants to get paid and make “Straight Cash Homey” one last time. When Moss wants to play, it is still damn near impossible to stop him.  Especially with a 100% Brady and a relatively healthy Welker to run underneath.  He caught a 65 yard bomb in the Pats preseason game Saturday night.  Brady just missed Moss on what would have been another fifty yard bomb in the Pats second preseason game.  Almost everyone has Andre at #1, but I think Moss has a higher ceiling than Andre without much more risk.  15 Tds and 1300 yds is very likely. (-)

2. Andre Johnson – Can’t go wrong here.  A physical freak in an offense with little changes. His production over the past few years is consistently great.  Andre had 7 receptions for 79 yards in less than a full game in Saturday nights preseason game against the Cowboys.  If you are looking for consistency, in 2009 Andre had at least 60 yards in every game after week 1.  That is a rarity from the volatile WR position.  Johnson logged over 100 receptions, 1500 yds and  8 Tds the past two years and I see the same type of production in 2010. I have him as #1a in Non-PPR format, but make that #1 in PPR.  (+)

Tier 2

3. Calvin Johnson – A definite dropoff after the Big 2, but Megatron is another physical freak that did not play to his potential due to injuries and a bad team in 2009.  It looks like the Lions offense has the capability to be explosive, and if thats the case Calvin will lead the way.  It sounds like he will be targeted heavily around the goaline.  Calvin has the definite possibility to move into Tier #1. Like Moss he takes a slight dip in PPR leagues.  (-)

4. Roddy White – White is a very solid WR that is moving into his third year with future star Matt Manning Ryan.  Roddy had six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in Friday’s preseason game.  He was targeted for a second touchdown as well that resulted in a rare drop.  The past three years White has caught over 80 receptions, 1150 yds, and six touchdowns.  Last year Roddy bumped his touchdown total to 11 TDs while keeping the yard and reception minimum.  Without Matty Ice and Michael Turner being banged up at the end of last year, his numbers would have been even better.  Reliable, has upside, and on a very capable offense.  85/1300/12.

Tier 3

5. Miles Austin – Austin has the potential to be great after what he showed last season.  That being said, with such a small showing as a dominant WR he also has the potential to be a bit of a bust.  I do think  he will remain a very solid WR1 and put up great numbers.  The Cowboys offensive line does worry me a bit, which is why I have Austin in Tier #3.  A big risk with a high pick, but again the potential is there.  I would predict similar numbers to last year, except over the full season.  80/1300/11 are very solid numbers though.

6. Brandon Marshall – Marshall was the biggest offseason move in fantasy circles.  His talent cannot be denied, and should transfer to Miami successfully.  A young quarterback like Chad Henne will often lock on to a receiver as talented as Marshall as his go to guy.  Brandon had a few drops in the preseason, but has been putting in extra time in practices addressing the issue.  The Tuna would not have given up two second round picks for a player he is not going to utilize.  (+)

Tier 4

7. Greg Jennings –  Jennings is a very hit or miss WR with his big play ability.  One deep connection from Rodgers and Jennings will have a great week.  Without it, he is unlikely to put up great numbers.  He should have more trips to the end zone than his 2009 TD total of 4.  That was largely due to the offensive line’s inability to protect Rodgers in the beginning of the year.  As the season progressed, Rodgers had more time in the pocket due to better protection.  More time led to more deep balls to Jennnings.  The addition of the first round tackle Bulaga will only bring more depth to the O-line.  The number one wideout on the most potent passing offense in the NFL is a good thing to have on your team.  (-)

8. Reggie Wayne – Wayne faces more competition for targets from Peyton this year then ever before.  With Garcon and Collie showing their ability last year, Gonzalez returning healthy, and Clark at tight end, targets will be in high demand.  Wayne still remains Peyton’s favorite target at wide out and that equals good numbers in fantasy football.  I predict a slight drop in production from last year, but 100 rec, 1250 yds, and 10 TDs are pretty solid numbers to only slightly drop from.  (+)

Tier 5

9. Dwayne Bowe – I have Bowe ranked much higher than most, but everyone is raving about Bowe and his offseason work habits.  Last year at this time, HC Todd Haley had Bowe running as the third wide out in Kansas City.  This year he is giving nothing but praise for this talented fourth year WR.  With Charles, T. Jones, McCluster, and Chambers, this offense has the possibility to be much improved if Cassell and the O-line can perform.  If that happens Haley and Weis may team up to coach a surprisingly decent offense and Bowe will dominate the WR targets.

10. Larry Fitzgerald – He remains in the elite talent class of the top 3 WR, but Derek Anderson scare me at QB.  Fitz will still be a solid WR, but we should taper our expectations with the retirement of the wiley vet.  It doesn’t sound as if his preseason knee injury will be a factor in the regular season,  but an erratic one year wonder at QB will be.

11. Anquan Boldin – I am not completely sold one way or the other.  He has always been such a serious injury risk because he is such a tough player.  He does however have the potential to be very good in a possibly explosive offense with Bam Bam Cam Cameron as his offensive coordinator, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and a good O-line.

12. Desean Jackson – The explosive playmaker from Philly is even more hit or miss than Jennings.  Desean has the speed and talent to go higher, I am just a little taken aback by his need for long TDs.  I did not love McNabb as a quarterback, but there is no denying his strong arm.  Can Kolb get Desean the long balls or will Jackson have to take it to the crib on slants? If the player, not special teams, gets points for kick/punt returns give Desean a slight boost. Also drop him a bit in PPR leagues. (-)

13. S. Smith (Car) – Smith produced very well once M. Moore came in to quarterback the Panthers last year.  With the ground game Carolina possesses, Smith should have some room to run in the secondary.  Hopefully LaFell or Jarrett can step up as the #2 to pull away some coverage.  Weak WR1, great WR2.

Tier 6

14. Wes Welker – Welker amassed 1350 Yds while missing two and a half games last year.  If he wasn’t injured he would be a definite top 10 WR even in non-PPR.  It looks like he miraculously has his burst and cutting ability back, months ahead of schedule.  Even if not 100% now, he should be pretty damn close by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.  With Moss and Brady in a contract year, I think Welker may be able to play at a very high level again. Bump into the top ten in PPR leagues.  (+)

15. Mike Wallace -FantasyFootballCalculator.com has Wallace’s ADP at 7.06 or the 31st WR off the board.  Getting Wallace as WR3 at 31st on the WR list is an absolute steal.  Wallace is taking over Santonio Holmes position (not in the smoke circle, on the field), and he has more breakaway speed than Holmes.  Wallace put up 750/6 in 2009 as the #3 WR in Pittsburgh.  Santonio put up 80/1250/5 last season.  As much as the Steelers wanted to take the PR off of Roethlisberger, they would not have traded Holmes unless they were relatively sure Wallace could replace him.  This is a spot where you can load up on other positions and be happy stealing Wallace as your WR2 while others listen to ADP. (-)

16. Marques Colston – I would not want him as my WR1, but a great WR2.  He is Brees most reliable target.  A solid 1000 yds 9 Tds is likely as long as he doesn’t get hit with an injury again.  I only have him ranked slightly lower than most because he lacks some upside in my opinion with Brees loving to spread the ball around.

Tier 7

17. Malcolm Floyd– With the Vincent Jackson debacle still not showing promise, Floyd continues to disguise himself as VJax.  Like the Wallace and Holmes situation, I feel like the Chargers recognized they had a player with talent that could be placed in Jackson’s role.  I do not like Pip Rivers personality, but he can throw the ball.  I am assuming there is a good chance VJax does not play for the Chargers this year.  If he does, drop Floyd considerably.  (-)

18. Johnny Knox – Which came first the chicken (Cutler) or the egg (Bears O-line)?  I am not sure but it is disappointing to see after I was so high on the Bears offense in training camp.  I still think they have the potential to succeed with the very complex system.  Knox continues to show promise in the preseason despite Cutler’s woes. That said, I think the offense’s success determines whether Knox is good or great.  I would consider Knox a mid to low WR2 with the upside of a low end WR1.

19. Hakeem Nicks – Nicks has the potential to be the #1 on the Giants.  I may have a bit of “Homerism” here, but last year he flashed how talented he can be.  He was a little banged up, but still produced fairly well for a rookie.  I know everyone hates Eli, but he passed for 4000 yds last year and has the last name of MachineManning.  If Nicks can be Manning’s primary big play reciever to complement Steve Smith as the possesion reciever, big things can happen for Nicks. (-)

Tier 8

20. Percy Harvin – Brett’s little buddy has the chance to be a very good WR with the loss of Rice. However everything about his migraine issue scares me.  It seems like it is the type of injury/illness that can happen at any time.  If my WR sprains his ankle during the game and has to come out … bummer, but you can live with that.  However going into the season knowing there is a decent chance Percy’s migraines will return and he will miss one or more games is not something I want to deal with.  I wish him the best because it sounds like a scary issue, but he hasn’t been on any of my teams this year because of that.  Although he has moved up recently on my board.  Average WR2, good WR3.

21. Michael Crabtree – Everyone loves Crabtree this offseason but I am not completely sold.  Maybe because I am not a huge college football fan.  His recent dispute with Vernon Davis about his work ethic drops my already skeptical level of excitement for Crabtree.  Everyone says he played great last year, but he would have only put up 70/900/3 if you average it out over 16 games.  Nicks missed two games last year, so if you project his 2009 stats over 16 games, he puts up 55/900/7.  Now I fully believe that we draft for the future not the past, but I think people are “Reggie Bushing” Crabtree a little bit.  He plays on a great defensive team who is going to want to run and pass to Vernon Davis alot in the red zone.  Still an average WR2 with upside.

22. Steve Smith (NYG) – I am lower on Steve Smith than most.  I think Nicks will take over as the lead reciever and Smith will become more complementary.  He makes for a poor man’s Wes Welker.  Definitely a top twenty pick in a PPR league, but Smith loses a lot of value in non-PPRs. (+)

23. Jeremy Maclin – No one is sure what to make of the Eagles offense this year.  Even though they have looked shaky this preseason, I still think they will put up solid numbers when it counts.  Not to keep harping on the preseason, but several people are down on Maclin because he missed a few catchable balls in the Birds third preseason game.  The more important factor to me is that he was targeted 11 times by Kolb!  If Maclin becomes Kolb’s go to receiver, he can be in for a big season.

24. Mike Sims-Walker – The Hyphen had a few big games last year, but lacks consistency, health, and a good quarterback.  Last year Coach Del Rio suspended him for missing curfew.  You have to be partying pretty hard for the coach to suspend his #1 WR.  If he can stay healthy and focused, he does have very good upside.

Tier 9

25. Hines Ward – Ward has been a constant producer on the Steelers roster for the past decade.  The fact that the Seoul Survivor put up 95/1150/6 last year is amazing.  I am always a little weary of drafting older tough guys like Ward, but he would make for a very good WR3 in three wide receiver leagues.  I don’t like him as much in 2 WR leagues because reliability is trumped by upside when there are less starters.  (+)

26. Chad OchoCinco – 85 lacks the ability to be a WR1 like he was several years ago, but he should be a fairly consistent WR2/3.  Bringing T.O. to town really throws a kink into how Palmer’s targets will be divided, but I think having a good receiver opposite Chad will help.  Ocho finished the 2009 season with a touchdown in the last 4 regular season games he played.  Limited upside, but not too much risk in this pick.

27. Robert Meachem – Colston is the Saints #1 right now, but I think Meachem has the talent to compete to become Brees’ main man.  Meachem was talked about as a breakout candidate at the end of last year, but he was forgotten about this offseason due to his toe injury throughout training camp.  Now he is back healthy and is already receiving red zone zone targets by Brees in the preseason and workouts.  On 8/31, RotoWorld reported Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Times-Picayune believes that Robert Meachem’s “production and playing time” will be limited this season, at least in part due to offseason toe surgery. In the Times-Picayune article, Duncan mentions the exceptional talent of Meachem then talks about the toe injury saying its a “setback that threatens to limit his production and playing time” he then goes on to say “But let’s wait to see if or how much it does before casting him as a disappointment. He still has time.” So even RotoWorld, a great site for information, can be misleading at times. (-)

28. Jabar Gaffney – He continues to keep me on my toes, but I still have faith in Josh McDaniels.  McD brought Gaffney over from the Patriots, so Jabar already knows the system well.  In the final two games last year Gaffney pulled in 21/280/2 with 14/210 coming in the lone game without Marshall.  He has looked like Orton’s favorite target again this preseason.  Hmmmmm. (+)

29. Vincent Jackson – It doesn’t look like he will be playing in San Diego this season.  No matter how stubborn GM AJ Smith is, there is no reason to not get some value out of VJax.  So a trade will likely be attempted, but the issue is whether Jackson will come down on his contract terms.  At this point I will take my chances on him. There are continuously rumors of Jackson’s future whereabouts.  No matter where he goes, if a team signs him to anything close to what VJax wants he will likely be a #1 WR on that team.  To me it sounds like #1 WR on a bad team or fantasy WR2/3 status.  Not bad value this late for the risk.

30. Pierre Garcon – This offense has so many weapons, but Garcon seems to be turning into Peyton’s big play WR.   Pierre is a fan favorite after his AFC championship performance, but I think he is a little overrated.  Garcon does have considerable upside if Peyton decides he is capable of having a bigger role.

31. Terrell Owens – In the past couple seasons it seems as though T.O. has been more humble than before.  It may be because Drew Rosenhaus told him he wouldn’t get paid if he kept blowing up, or at age 36 OchoUno may have actually matured past the level of a 13 year old.  Either way he seems excited to play with OchoCinco and Carson after being exiled to Siberia last year in Buffalo.  The hype will follow Owens wherever he goes, but I think he has landed himself in a decent situation in Cincy.  I would be content with T.O. as my WR3.

Tier 10

32. Mohamed Massoquoi – Jake Delhomme has looked surprisingly decent in his preseason work.  With a solid offensive line and Hardesty/Harrison in the backfield, Massoquoi may have some decent value.  MoMa showed glimpes of his second round talent last year with a few big games.  If Delhomme can bring some stability to the quarterback position MoMa may wake up from his sleeper status.

33. Mike Williams (TB) – The guy has amazing talent.  Very few talent evaluators would disagree, but his character concerns plummeted his draft stock.  From the start of Bucs camp, reports on Williams have been great.  If he can gel with Josh Freeman once the quarterback returns from injury, he may be a great sleeper pick.

34. Jacoby Jones – Many are grasping at the fact that Walter signed a solid contract with the Texans this offseason as the reason why Jacoby is still the #3 WR in Houston.  Let’s hope the release of Antonio Bryant proved that theory wrong.  Jacoby has insane athleticism and gives Schaub two big, tall, and fast WRs.  If he can hold on to the ball, Jones has sleeper written all over him.

35. Lee Evans – With Spiller, F. Jackson, and M. Lynch, Buffalo has a slew of RB options once they are healthy.  The same cannot be said for Buffalo’s receivers.  Evans is the man in Buffalo, and their offense displayed some firepower in the preseason.  If new HC Chan Gailey can use his offensive creativity to open up the Bills passing attack, the speedster Evans could benefit.  The key here is whether Trent Edwards and the offensive line can be stable enough to get Evans the deep ball.  A hit or miss receiver with upside. (-)

36. Laurent Robinson – Robinson displayed some talent in the beginning of last year before going down to injury.  With Avery now out for the year, Robinson becomes the WR1 on the Rams offense.  He has potential with his size and speed combo.

37. Legedu Naanee – Naanee is a very physical wideout at 6’2 220.  He will be the #2 WR in a potent offense with Phillip Rivers at the helm.  I think he has a chance to put up a solid 1000 and 7Tds if he plays well.

38. Donald Driver – When a player’s upside is 1000 yards and 6TDs I cannot draft him in my top 30.  If Driver is available, I would gladly draft him as my WR4, but if not I would rather upside than average production.  In his last five games, Driver had 210 yds and 1 TD (40/0.2 avg).  He is however still Aaron Rodgers third target on the best passing offense in football.  Like all mediocre players, his value is slightly higher in very deep leagues.

39. Santana Moss – McNabb and Santana have great potential together … if it were 2004.  These two players do both possess a lot of talent and have the chance to put up numbers while playing together.  The key is they have to be PLAYING.  McNabb has already injured his ankle, and now that Moss will no longer be meeting with Dr. Galea (allegedly) it is only a matter of time before he breaks down again. (-)

40.Devin Aromashodu – I was very high on Aromashodu to start this offseason. But with Knox looking like the definitive WR#1 in Chi-town and the offensive line looking weak, the new “TJ Whosyourmama”  gets knocked a few spots down.  Everyone raves about his four game stretch last year, but Knox and/or Hester were injured during that stretch.  In these notorious four games, Aroma recorded over 80 yds once.  For being such a “big play” guy, he only averaged 12.8 yds/catch in those four games.  So Aroma has plenty of upside in the mythical Martz offense, but it comes with a good chance of being a bust.

Tier 11

41. Louis Murphy – Murphy has potential this year with an actual quarterback throwing him the ball.  With the departure of Jamarcus Russell, Jason Campbell steps up to the plate.  Campbell looked pretty sharp in the Raiders third preseason game before going down with a stinger.  If the second year receiver can gain some chemistry with Campbell while Chaz Schilens is perpetually injured, there may be some potential here.

42. Steve Breaston – His value gets a slight boost with Anderson over Leinart.  Breaston showed his talent as the #3 with Warner under center.  He hopes to make a leap in production with Boldin now in Baltimore.  He has upside, but Early Doucet is also there and the targets will not be as plentiful as last year.

43. Nate Burleson – Nasty Nate has a chance to put up some decent numbers in the, dare I say it, explosive Detroit offense.  Running on the opposite side of Calvin, Burleson should get some pretty good matchups this year.  He already knows the offense being ran from his days with OC Linehan in Minnesota, so Nate can hopefully jump right in.  As always with Burleson, staying healthy is the biggest obstacle.

Tier 12

44. Dez Bryant – Bryant, like Mike Williams, slipped in the draft due to character issues not talent.  Missing valuable practice time with the ankle injury worries me a little.  Second, Dallas’s O-line has looked abysmal in the preseason.  However Dez has decent potential this late.

45. Bernard Berrian – With Sidney Rice on the PUP list there is going to be a surplus of Favre targets for half the season.  The question is will Berrian or Camarillo step up.  I like Camarillo, but I am putting Berrian in this spot because of his familiarity with the offense.  Javon Walker may scoop some, but I don’t think he is fantasy relevant.

46. James Jones – Jones has been a sleeper for three years now.  Stop hitting that snooze button my man and overtake Driver as the starting split end.  I don’t see it happening without an injury, but Driver’s knees are not sturdy at this stage of his career.  If an injury to Driver or Jennings occurs, Jones easily bumps into the top thirty.

47. Braylon Edwards – Braylon has insane athleticism.  However you can’t just be taller and faster than everyone as a wider receiver, you need to catch the football and run routes.  This is where Edwards has a bit of a problem.  He may do decent, but how many times do you think Rex is going to let Sanchez pass the ball?  Enough to feed Braylon, Santonio, Cotchery, Keller, and LT?

48. Mike Williams (Sea) – Can he come back to relevance under his former coach Carroll?  He looked decent in the preseason and reports continue to project him as a starter once Housh is gone.  At 6-5 he can definitely be successful if used properly.

49. TJ Houshmandzadeh -I can finally spell his name without copying and pasting.  Housh has had the run around this offseason after being releasesed by the Seahawks.  He then landed himself on one of the best offenses in football, the Ravens.  No one is sure of his role right now, so he remains a flier WR5

50. Julian Edleman – Welker appears healthy and ready to go this season.  However it is still the Patriots organization, so we may be watching a robot designed to look like Welker and no one in the organization would let anyone know.  Edleman is never going to be the 50th WR.  He will either be a top twenty WR if Welker gets hurt, or out of the top fifty if Wes stays healthy.  I think it may be worth the gamble as a WR5.
When drafting I would attempt to get my WR1 in the top 6 WRs, my WR2 in the top 17, and my WR3 in the top 25.  This may sound like you must draft WR very high, but that is not true.  There are plenty of capable WRs out there that are being drafted much lower than where I have them ranked. The WRs with the biggest disparity between ADP (Average Draft Position) and my rankings are Dwayne Bowe (ADP #18), Mike Wallace (ADP #31), Malcolm Floyd (ADP #25), Johnny Knox (ADP #30), Robert Meachem (ADP #35), Mike Williams (ADP 46), and Jabar Gaffney (ADP 54).  So if things go your way you can grab one of the elite WRs with a 1st/2nd/3rd rounder, then someone like Bowe in the fourth round or Wallace/Floyd/Knox in the sixth round.  You can then grab someone like Robert Meachem in the ninth and Mike Williams/Jabar Gaffney in the eleventh round and you have a good WR corp at a discounted price.
Remember you never know how a draft is going to shape up so you must be ready for anything.  For example, lets say you already drafted your top two WRs and plan on waiting for your WR3 until the tenth round.  Once you are on the clock with your ninth round pick and you are about to take your RB3, you see Johnny Knox is still available.  At this point you have to pull the trigger on Knox unless there is a RB that has dropped as well.  Filling positions is important, but sometimes a certain player drops so far that you must take that value.  Good Luck to all, I hope this piece helps you show your league up.
-McShaft
One side note: I find it interesting that there are so many double first namers in the top 20 WRs … Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Malcolm Floyd.