Valuing players after Week 1

Fantasy players can be looked at like stocks on Wall Street.  Every player has a value, but no one knows the true value.  It is our job to predict how good these players will do going forward.  We do this by collecting information and data about these players. After Week 1, every player’s stock moves up or down.  This is the best time to take advantage of players who had one bad game.  It is also a good time to unload players who had one great week.  We must take advantage and sell high and buy low.

Let’s say this week Ronnie Brown blows up against Buffalo and puts up 150 Yds/2 TDs.  In the Preseason, Brown was thought of as a valuable player when healthy, but not a top 15 back because of his injury risk.  After going off against a weak Buffalo rush defense, ESPN and other sites decide that Ronnie Brown looked great and move him way up their lists.  All of a sudden Matt Berry raves about Ronnie Brown and places him on the love side in his “Love/Hate” article.  Now everyone thinks Brown is a great running back again and his average ranking has moved from the mid twenties to the top 10.  At that price, Brown is overvalued and should be traded at his inflated price.

In this example we jump to a conclusion too fast on Brown.  In the preseason we all knew Brown could be a great running back when healthy.  We also knew that his injury risk was higher than nearly any other back.  Just because Brown looked fast and healthy, the common fantasy owner thinks that Brown deserves to be bumped into the  top 10 RB.  Due to our short term memory in fantasy football, we forget that we already thought that Brown would do well to start the season but would later get injured.  Before we let the so-called “common fantasy football knowledge” effect our rankings, we must remember Brown’s preseason label of explosive when healthy, but very fragile.   So after his good week 1 we may move Brown up from 25th to 18th on our season long RB rankings, but  the key is to not overate Brown’s value due to one good week.

A player is not necessarily overrated if he has a good week 1.  For example, if Johnny Knox puts up 120 Yds/1 TD against Detroit this week and the common owner bumps his value from 35 to 25, I think that is still a good value to get Knox at.  When figuring out a player’s value we must take Week 1 into effect because it is by far the most important information we have.  However it is not the only info.  Our rankings should always be adjusting to the new information we get, but we should not overemphasize one week of play.

Check back after Sundays games for my list of players who are being over and undervalued.