Top 50 WR Rankings Non-PPR 

First rankings of the site …

These are the Top 50 Wide Receiver rankings as of 9/1 (with some updates) for a Non-PPR league.

Notations represent the movement in a PPR league

(+)/ (-)  up/down

Tier 1

1. Randy Moss – Every report out of the Pats camp has had Randy in amazing shape.  Being in his contract year, he wants to get paid and make “Straight Cash Homey” one last time. When Moss wants to play, it is still damn near impossible to stop him.  Especially with a 100% Brady and a relatively healthy Welker to run underneath.  He caught a 65 yard bomb in the Pats preseason game Saturday night.  Brady just missed Moss on what would have been another fifty yard bomb in the Pats second preseason game.  Almost everyone has Andre at #1, but I think Moss has a higher ceiling than Andre without much more risk.  15 Tds and 1300 yds is very likely. (-)

2. Andre Johnson – Can’t go wrong here.  A physical freak in an offense with little changes. His production over the past few years is consistently great.  Andre had 7 receptions for 79 yards in less than a full game in Saturday nights preseason game against the Cowboys.  If you are looking for consistency, in 2009 Andre had at least 60 yards in every game after week 1.  That is a rarity from the volatile WR position.  Johnson logged over 100 receptions, 1500 yds and  8 Tds the past two years and I see the same type of production in 2010. I have him as #1a in Non-PPR format, but make that #1 in PPR.  (+)

Tier 2

3. Calvin Johnson – A definite dropoff after the Big 2, but Megatron is another physical freak that did not play to his potential due to injuries and a bad team in 2009.  It looks like the Lions offense has the capability to be explosive, and if thats the case Calvin will lead the way.  It sounds like he will be targeted heavily around the goaline.  Calvin has the definite possibility to move into Tier #1. Like Moss he takes a slight dip in PPR leagues.  (-)

4. Roddy White – White is a very solid WR that is moving into his third year with future star Matt Manning Ryan.  Roddy had six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in Friday’s preseason game.  He was targeted for a second touchdown as well that resulted in a rare drop.  The past three years White has caught over 80 receptions, 1150 yds, and six touchdowns.  Last year Roddy bumped his touchdown total to 11 TDs while keeping the yard and reception minimum.  Without Matty Ice and Michael Turner being banged up at the end of last year, his numbers would have been even better.  Reliable, has upside, and on a very capable offense.  85/1300/12.

Tier 3

5. Miles Austin – Austin has the potential to be great after what he showed last season.  That being said, with such a small showing as a dominant WR he also has the potential to be a bit of a bust.  I do think  he will remain a very solid WR1 and put up great numbers.  The Cowboys offensive line does worry me a bit, which is why I have Austin in Tier #3.  A big risk with a high pick, but again the potential is there.  I would predict similar numbers to last year, except over the full season.  80/1300/11 are very solid numbers though.

6. Brandon Marshall – Marshall was the biggest offseason move in fantasy circles.  His talent cannot be denied, and should transfer to Miami successfully.  A young quarterback like Chad Henne will often lock on to a receiver as talented as Marshall as his go to guy.  Brandon had a few drops in the preseason, but has been putting in extra time in practices addressing the issue.  The Tuna would not have given up two second round picks for a player he is not going to utilize.  (+)

Tier 4

7. Greg Jennings –  Jennings is a very hit or miss WR with his big play ability.  One deep connection from Rodgers and Jennings will have a great week.  Without it, he is unlikely to put up great numbers.  He should have more trips to the end zone than his 2009 TD total of 4.  That was largely due to the offensive line’s inability to protect Rodgers in the beginning of the year.  As the season progressed, Rodgers had more time in the pocket due to better protection.  More time led to more deep balls to Jennnings.  The addition of the first round tackle Bulaga will only bring more depth to the O-line.  The number one wideout on the most potent passing offense in the NFL is a good thing to have on your team.  (-)

8. Reggie Wayne – Wayne faces more competition for targets from Peyton this year then ever before.  With Garcon and Collie showing their ability last year, Gonzalez returning healthy, and Clark at tight end, targets will be in high demand.  Wayne still remains Peyton’s favorite target at wide out and that equals good numbers in fantasy football.  I predict a slight drop in production from last year, but 100 rec, 1250 yds, and 10 TDs are pretty solid numbers to only slightly drop from.  (+)

Tier 5

9. Dwayne Bowe – I have Bowe ranked much higher than most, but everyone is raving about Bowe and his offseason work habits.  Last year at this time, HC Todd Haley had Bowe running as the third wide out in Kansas City.  This year he is giving nothing but praise for this talented fourth year WR.  With Charles, T. Jones, McCluster, and Chambers, this offense has the possibility to be much improved if Cassell and the O-line can perform.  If that happens Haley and Weis may team up to coach a surprisingly decent offense and Bowe will dominate the WR targets.

10. Larry Fitzgerald – He remains in the elite talent class of the top 3 WR, but Derek Anderson scare me at QB.  Fitz will still be a solid WR, but we should taper our expectations with the retirement of the wiley vet.  It doesn’t sound as if his preseason knee injury will be a factor in the regular season,  but an erratic one year wonder at QB will be.

11. Anquan Boldin – I am not completely sold one way or the other.  He has always been such a serious injury risk because he is such a tough player.  He does however have the potential to be very good in a possibly explosive offense with Bam Bam Cam Cameron as his offensive coordinator, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and a good O-line.

12. Desean Jackson – The explosive playmaker from Philly is even more hit or miss than Jennings.  Desean has the speed and talent to go higher, I am just a little taken aback by his need for long TDs.  I did not love McNabb as a quarterback, but there is no denying his strong arm.  Can Kolb get Desean the long balls or will Jackson have to take it to the crib on slants? If the player, not special teams, gets points for kick/punt returns give Desean a slight boost. Also drop him a bit in PPR leagues. (-)

13. S. Smith (Car) – Smith produced very well once M. Moore came in to quarterback the Panthers last year.  With the ground game Carolina possesses, Smith should have some room to run in the secondary.  Hopefully LaFell or Jarrett can step up as the #2 to pull away some coverage.  Weak WR1, great WR2.

Tier 6

14. Wes Welker – Welker amassed 1350 Yds while missing two and a half games last year.  If he wasn’t injured he would be a definite top 10 WR even in non-PPR.  It looks like he miraculously has his burst and cutting ability back, months ahead of schedule.  Even if not 100% now, he should be pretty damn close by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.  With Moss and Brady in a contract year, I think Welker may be able to play at a very high level again. Bump into the top ten in PPR leagues.  (+)

15. Mike Wallace -FantasyFootballCalculator.com has Wallace’s ADP at 7.06 or the 31st WR off the board.  Getting Wallace as WR3 at 31st on the WR list is an absolute steal.  Wallace is taking over Santonio Holmes position (not in the smoke circle, on the field), and he has more breakaway speed than Holmes.  Wallace put up 750/6 in 2009 as the #3 WR in Pittsburgh.  Santonio put up 80/1250/5 last season.  As much as the Steelers wanted to take the PR off of Roethlisberger, they would not have traded Holmes unless they were relatively sure Wallace could replace him.  This is a spot where you can load up on other positions and be happy stealing Wallace as your WR2 while others listen to ADP. (-)

16. Marques Colston – I would not want him as my WR1, but a great WR2.  He is Brees most reliable target.  A solid 1000 yds 9 Tds is likely as long as he doesn’t get hit with an injury again.  I only have him ranked slightly lower than most because he lacks some upside in my opinion with Brees loving to spread the ball around.

Tier 7

17. Malcolm Floyd– With the Vincent Jackson debacle still not showing promise, Floyd continues to disguise himself as VJax.  Like the Wallace and Holmes situation, I feel like the Chargers recognized they had a player with talent that could be placed in Jackson’s role.  I do not like Pip Rivers personality, but he can throw the ball.  I am assuming there is a good chance VJax does not play for the Chargers this year.  If he does, drop Floyd considerably.  (-)

18. Johnny Knox – Which came first the chicken (Cutler) or the egg (Bears O-line)?  I am not sure but it is disappointing to see after I was so high on the Bears offense in training camp.  I still think they have the potential to succeed with the very complex system.  Knox continues to show promise in the preseason despite Cutler’s woes. That said, I think the offense’s success determines whether Knox is good or great.  I would consider Knox a mid to low WR2 with the upside of a low end WR1.

19. Hakeem Nicks – Nicks has the potential to be the #1 on the Giants.  I may have a bit of “Homerism” here, but last year he flashed how talented he can be.  He was a little banged up, but still produced fairly well for a rookie.  I know everyone hates Eli, but he passed for 4000 yds last year and has the last name of MachineManning.  If Nicks can be Manning’s primary big play reciever to complement Steve Smith as the possesion reciever, big things can happen for Nicks. (-)

Tier 8

20. Percy Harvin – Brett’s little buddy has the chance to be a very good WR with the loss of Rice. However everything about his migraine issue scares me.  It seems like it is the type of injury/illness that can happen at any time.  If my WR sprains his ankle during the game and has to come out … bummer, but you can live with that.  However going into the season knowing there is a decent chance Percy’s migraines will return and he will miss one or more games is not something I want to deal with.  I wish him the best because it sounds like a scary issue, but he hasn’t been on any of my teams this year because of that.  Although he has moved up recently on my board.  Average WR2, good WR3.

21. Michael Crabtree – Everyone loves Crabtree this offseason but I am not completely sold.  Maybe because I am not a huge college football fan.  His recent dispute with Vernon Davis about his work ethic drops my already skeptical level of excitement for Crabtree.  Everyone says he played great last year, but he would have only put up 70/900/3 if you average it out over 16 games.  Nicks missed two games last year, so if you project his 2009 stats over 16 games, he puts up 55/900/7.  Now I fully believe that we draft for the future not the past, but I think people are “Reggie Bushing” Crabtree a little bit.  He plays on a great defensive team who is going to want to run and pass to Vernon Davis alot in the red zone.  Still an average WR2 with upside.

22. Steve Smith (NYG) – I am lower on Steve Smith than most.  I think Nicks will take over as the lead reciever and Smith will become more complementary.  He makes for a poor man’s Wes Welker.  Definitely a top twenty pick in a PPR league, but Smith loses a lot of value in non-PPRs. (+)

23. Jeremy Maclin – No one is sure what to make of the Eagles offense this year.  Even though they have looked shaky this preseason, I still think they will put up solid numbers when it counts.  Not to keep harping on the preseason, but several people are down on Maclin because he missed a few catchable balls in the Birds third preseason game.  The more important factor to me is that he was targeted 11 times by Kolb!  If Maclin becomes Kolb’s go to receiver, he can be in for a big season.

24. Mike Sims-Walker – The Hyphen had a few big games last year, but lacks consistency, health, and a good quarterback.  Last year Coach Del Rio suspended him for missing curfew.  You have to be partying pretty hard for the coach to suspend his #1 WR.  If he can stay healthy and focused, he does have very good upside.

Tier 9

25. Hines Ward – Ward has been a constant producer on the Steelers roster for the past decade.  The fact that the Seoul Survivor put up 95/1150/6 last year is amazing.  I am always a little weary of drafting older tough guys like Ward, but he would make for a very good WR3 in three wide receiver leagues.  I don’t like him as much in 2 WR leagues because reliability is trumped by upside when there are less starters.  (+)

26. Chad OchoCinco – 85 lacks the ability to be a WR1 like he was several years ago, but he should be a fairly consistent WR2/3.  Bringing T.O. to town really throws a kink into how Palmer’s targets will be divided, but I think having a good receiver opposite Chad will help.  Ocho finished the 2009 season with a touchdown in the last 4 regular season games he played.  Limited upside, but not too much risk in this pick.

27. Robert Meachem – Colston is the Saints #1 right now, but I think Meachem has the talent to compete to become Brees’ main man.  Meachem was talked about as a breakout candidate at the end of last year, but he was forgotten about this offseason due to his toe injury throughout training camp.  Now he is back healthy and is already receiving red zone zone targets by Brees in the preseason and workouts.  On 8/31, RotoWorld reported Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Times-Picayune believes that Robert Meachem’s “production and playing time” will be limited this season, at least in part due to offseason toe surgery. In the Times-Picayune article, Duncan mentions the exceptional talent of Meachem then talks about the toe injury saying its a “setback that threatens to limit his production and playing time” he then goes on to say “But let’s wait to see if or how much it does before casting him as a disappointment. He still has time.” So even RotoWorld, a great site for information, can be misleading at times. (-)

28. Jabar Gaffney – He continues to keep me on my toes, but I still have faith in Josh McDaniels.  McD brought Gaffney over from the Patriots, so Jabar already knows the system well.  In the final two games last year Gaffney pulled in 21/280/2 with 14/210 coming in the lone game without Marshall.  He has looked like Orton’s favorite target again this preseason.  Hmmmmm. (+)

29. Vincent Jackson – It doesn’t look like he will be playing in San Diego this season.  No matter how stubborn GM AJ Smith is, there is no reason to not get some value out of VJax.  So a trade will likely be attempted, but the issue is whether Jackson will come down on his contract terms.  At this point I will take my chances on him. There are continuously rumors of Jackson’s future whereabouts.  No matter where he goes, if a team signs him to anything close to what VJax wants he will likely be a #1 WR on that team.  To me it sounds like #1 WR on a bad team or fantasy WR2/3 status.  Not bad value this late for the risk.

30. Pierre Garcon – This offense has so many weapons, but Garcon seems to be turning into Peyton’s big play WR.   Pierre is a fan favorite after his AFC championship performance, but I think he is a little overrated.  Garcon does have considerable upside if Peyton decides he is capable of having a bigger role.

31. Terrell Owens – In the past couple seasons it seems as though T.O. has been more humble than before.  It may be because Drew Rosenhaus told him he wouldn’t get paid if he kept blowing up, or at age 36 OchoUno may have actually matured past the level of a 13 year old.  Either way he seems excited to play with OchoCinco and Carson after being exiled to Siberia last year in Buffalo.  The hype will follow Owens wherever he goes, but I think he has landed himself in a decent situation in Cincy.  I would be content with T.O. as my WR3.

Tier 10

32. Mohamed Massoquoi – Jake Delhomme has looked surprisingly decent in his preseason work.  With a solid offensive line and Hardesty/Harrison in the backfield, Massoquoi may have some decent value.  MoMa showed glimpes of his second round talent last year with a few big games.  If Delhomme can bring some stability to the quarterback position MoMa may wake up from his sleeper status.

33. Mike Williams (TB) The guy has amazing talent.  Very few talent evaluators would disagree, but his character concerns plummeted his draft stock.  From the start of Bucs camp, reports on Williams have been great.  If he can gel with Josh Freeman once the quarterback returns from injury, he may be a great sleeper pick.

34. Jacoby Jones – Many are grasping at the fact that Walter signed a solid contract with the Texans this offseason as the reason why Jacoby is still the #3 WR in Houston.  Let’s hope the release of Antonio Bryant proved that theory wrong.  Jacoby has insane athleticism and gives Schaub two big, tall, and fast WRs.  If he can hold on to the ball, Jones has sleeper written all over him.

35. Lee Evans – With Spiller, F. Jackson, and M. Lynch, Buffalo has a slew of RB options once they are healthy.  The same cannot be said for Buffalo’s receivers.  Evans is the man in Buffalo, and their offense displayed some firepower in the preseason.  If new HC Chan Gailey can use his offensive creativity to open up the Bills passing attack, the speedster Evans could benefit.  The key here is whether Trent Edwards and the offensive line can be stable enough to get Evans the deep ball.  A hit or miss receiver with upside. (-)

36. Laurent Robinson – Robinson displayed some talent in the beginning of last year before going down to injury.  With Avery now out for the year, Robinson becomes the WR1 on the Rams offense.  He has potential with his size and speed combo.

37. Legedu Naanee – Naanee is a very physical wideout at 6’2 220.  He will be the #2 WR in a potent offense with Phillip Rivers at the helm.  I think he has a chance to put up a solid 1000 and 7Tds if he plays well.

38. Donald Driver – When a player’s upside is 1000 yards and 6TDs I cannot draft him in my top 30.  If Driver is available, I would gladly draft him as my WR4, but if not I would rather upside than average production.  In his last five games, Driver had 210 yds and 1 TD (40/0.2 avg).  He is however still Aaron Rodgers third target on the best passing offense in football.  Like all mediocre players, his value is slightly higher in very deep leagues.

39. Santana Moss – McNabb and Santana have great potential together … if it were 2004.  These two players do both possess a lot of talent and have the chance to put up numbers while playing together.  The key is they have to be PLAYING.  McNabb has already injured his ankle, and now that Moss will no longer be meeting with Dr. Galea (allegedly) it is only a matter of time before he breaks down again. (-)

40.Devin Aromashodu – I was very high on Aromashodu to start this offseason. But with Knox looking like the definitive WR#1 in Chi-town and the offensive line looking weak, the new “TJ Whosyourmama”  gets knocked a few spots down.  Everyone raves about his four game stretch last year, but Knox and/or Hester were injured during that stretch.  In these notorious four games, Aroma recorded over 80 yds once.  For being such a “big play” guy, he only averaged 12.8 yds/catch in those four games.  So Aroma has plenty of upside in the mythical Martz offense, but it comes with a good chance of being a bust.

Tier 11

41. Louis Murphy – Murphy has potential this year with an actual quarterback throwing him the ball.  With the departure of Jamarcus Russell, Jason Campbell steps up to the plate.  Campbell looked pretty sharp in the Raiders third preseason game before going down with a stinger.  If the second year receiver can gain some chemistry with Campbell while Chaz Schilens is perpetually injured, there may be some potential here.

42. Steve Breaston – His value gets a slight boost with Anderson over Leinart.  Breaston showed his talent as the #3 with Warner under center.  He hopes to make a leap in production with Boldin now in Baltimore.  He has upside, but Early Doucet is also there and the targets will not be as plentiful as last year.

43. Nate Burleson – Nasty Nate has a chance to put up some decent numbers in the, dare I say it, explosive Detroit offense.  Running on the opposite side of Calvin, Burleson should get some pretty good matchups this year.  He already knows the offense being ran from his days with OC Linehan in Minnesota, so Nate can hopefully jump right in.  As always with Burleson, staying healthy is the biggest obstacle.

Tier 12

44. Dez Bryant – Bryant, like Mike Williams, slipped in the draft due to character issues not talent.  Missing valuable practice time with the ankle injury worries me a little.  Second, Dallas’s O-line has looked abysmal in the preseason.  However Dez has decent potential this late.

45. Bernard Berrian – With Sidney Rice on the PUP list there is going to be a surplus of Favre targets for half the season.  The question is will Berrian or Camarillo step up.  I like Camarillo, but I am putting Berrian in this spot because of his familiarity with the offense.  Javon Walker may scoop some, but I don’t think he is fantasy relevant.

46. James Jones – Jones has been a sleeper for three years now.  Stop hitting that snooze button my man and overtake Driver as the starting split end.  I don’t see it happening without an injury, but Driver’s knees are not sturdy at this stage of his career.  If an injury to Driver or Jennings occurs, Jones easily bumps into the top thirty.

47. Braylon Edwards – Braylon has insane athleticism.  However you can’t just be taller and faster than everyone as a wider receiver, you need to catch the football and run routes.  This is where Edwards has a bit of a problem.  He may do decent, but how many times do you think Rex is going to let Sanchez pass the ball?  Enough to feed Braylon, Santonio, Cotchery, Keller, and LT?

48. Mike Williams (Sea) – Can he come back to relevance under his former coach Carroll?  He looked decent in the preseason and reports continue to project him as a starter once Housh is gone.  At 6-5 he can definitely be successful if used properly.

49. TJ Houshmandzadeh -I can finally spell his name without copying and pasting.  Housh has had the run around this offseason after being releasesed by the Seahawks.  He then landed himself on one of the best offenses in football, the Ravens.  No one is sure of his role right now, so he remains a flier WR5

50. Julian Edleman – Welker appears healthy and ready to go this season.  However it is still the Patriots organization, so we may be watching a robot designed to look like Welker and no one in the organization would let anyone know.  Edleman is never going to be the 50th WR.  He will either be a top twenty WR if Welker gets hurt, or out of the top fifty if Wes stays healthy.  I think it may be worth the gamble as a WR5.
When drafting I would attempt to get my WR1 in the top 6 WRs, my WR2 in the top 17, and my WR3 in the top 25.  This may sound like you must draft WR very high, but that is not true.  There are plenty of capable WRs out there that are being drafted much lower than where I have them ranked. The WRs with the biggest disparity between ADP (Average Draft Position) and my rankings are Dwayne Bowe (ADP #18), Mike Wallace (ADP #31), Malcolm Floyd (ADP #25), Johnny Knox (ADP #30), Robert Meachem (ADP #35), Mike Williams (ADP 46), and Jabar Gaffney (ADP 54).  So if things go your way you can grab one of the elite WRs with a 1st/2nd/3rd rounder, then someone like Bowe in the fourth round or Wallace/Floyd/Knox in the sixth round.  You can then grab someone like Robert Meachem in the ninth and Mike Williams/Jabar Gaffney in the eleventh round and you have a good WR corp at a discounted price.
Remember you never know how a draft is going to shape up so you must be ready for anything.  For example, lets say you already drafted your top two WRs and plan on waiting for your WR3 until the tenth round.  Once you are on the clock with your ninth round pick and you are about to take your RB3, you see Johnny Knox is still available.  At this point you have to pull the trigger on Knox unless there is a RB that has dropped as well.  Filling positions is important, but sometimes a certain player drops so far that you must take that value.  Good Luck to all, I hope this piece helps you show your league up.
-McShaft
One side note: I find it interesting that there are so many double first namers in the top 20 WRs … Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Malcolm Floyd.